Lessons from China’s Weaponisation of Critical Minerals

A Case Study of Gallium and Germanium

Abstract

China’s weaponisation of its dominance in the production of gallium and germanium between 2023 and 2025 failed to achieve sustained leverage over the United States. While Beijing’s restrictive licensing requirements, and subsequent blanket ban successfully induced significant price volatility — with international retail benchmarks for high-purity variants appreciating by over 200 per cent — export controls did not translate into a contraction of the US’ industrial consumption. The assessment reveals that the US’ demonstrated remarkable resilience, bolstered by rapid substitutability, supply chain diversification, and even domestic capability building. For gallium, the US successfully pivoted to Japanese, German, and Canadian suppliers, reducing reliance on direct Chinese imports. With respect to Germanium, the US succeeded in insulating itself by relying on diversification, limited domestic production and robust domestic recycling capability.